Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 0.367207 0.423760 0.485133 0.556557 0.637261 0.725487 0.829100
2025-06-22 0.271197 0.341829 0.424515 0.527994 0.653520 0.800321 0.984424
2025-06-29 0.207817 0.284903 0.381831 0.511593 0.679546 0.888245 1.165661
2025-07-06 0.159258 0.237273 0.342489 0.492824 0.699780 0.971985 1.353849
2025-07-13 0.131365 0.211851 0.327815 0.503840 0.760246 1.115273 1.637889
2025-07-20 0.105449 0.184157 0.305271 0.500372 0.800552 1.237138 1.909783
2025-07-27 0.087578 0.165177 0.292338 0.508995 0.859773 1.393572 2.250872
2025-08-03 0.073505 0.149463 0.281753 0.519565 0.923580 1.564945 2.635371
2025-08-10 0.057496 0.126616 0.254951 0.498835 0.934105 1.655336 2.906445
2025-08-17 0.044008 0.105173 0.226355 0.469831 0.926100 1.714515 3.134391
2025-08-24 0.035453 0.091563 0.209711 0.459664 0.949473 1.828663 3.466287
2025-08-31 0.028679 0.080007 0.194762 0.450019 0.972181 1.944021 3.812810
2025-09-07 0.024695 0.074191 0.191337 0.464494 1.046055 2.165220 4.380994
2025-09-14 0.019218 0.062892 0.173212 0.444510 1.048474 2.254531 4.720105
2025-09-21 0.015370 0.054672 0.160366 0.433778 1.068544 2.380558 5.143483
2025-09-28 0.012172 0.047155 0.147392 0.420144 1.080234 2.491509 5.550587
2025-10-05 0.010534 0.043928 0.144932 0.431760 1.150430 2.730627 6.238387
2025-10-12 0.008741 0.039463 0.137910 0.430367 1.190247 2.910426 6.823997
2025-10-19 0.007533 0.036622 0.134925 0.439210 1.256207 3.154653 7.569652
2025-10-26 0.006541 0.034197 0.132610 0.449529 1.327523 3.418894 8.384324
2025-11-02 0.005159 0.029464 0.121493 0.432130 1.325110 3.514811 8.840655
2025-11-09 0.003937 0.024735 0.108863 0.407239 1.298629 3.551016 9.166901
2025-11-16 0.003194 0.021868 0.101978 0.398761 1.315665 3.693518 9.750247